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OPEC has officially blinked. For the first time since the US-Iran conflict erupted in late February, the cartel has put out hard numbers on how badly the war is denting global oil demand — and the answer is 500,000 barrels per day less than previously expected for Q2 2026.
According to OPEC's monthly oil market report released today (April 14, 2026), global oil demand is now projected to average 105.07 million barrels per day in the second quarter, down from the earlier estimate of 105.57 million bpd. The group cited "slight transitory weakness" driven by the ongoing Middle East crisis.
What's remarkable here is that OPEC is actually being more optimistic than other forecasters. The US Energy Information Administration cut its 2026 demand growth projection in half earlier this month. OPEC, meanwhile, kept its full-year demand growth forecast unchanged at 1.38 million bpd, betting that consumption will rebound strongly in H2 2026 once the situation stabilises.
The supply side is already devastating. OPEC+ crude oil output averaged just 35.06 million barrels per day in March — a staggering drop of 7.70 million bpd compared to February. Iraq and Saudi Arabia recorded the largest individual production declines, largely because the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed under the US naval blockade.
In a somewhat symbolic gesture, OPEC+ agreed on April 5 to increase output quotas by 206,000 bpd for May. But let's be honest — that increase means very little while key Gulf producers can't actually move their oil through Hormuz. It's a quota increase that exists mostly on paper.
The big question is whether OPEC's optimism about a second-half recovery is justified. If the US-Iran talks in Pakistan lead to a ceasefire and Hormuz reopens, supply could snap back faster than expected. But if the conflict drags on through summer, the market could get significantly tighter. For now, Brent sits at $98.41 and WTI at $96.47 — still dangerously elevated compared to pre-war levels near $73.