SINGAPORE, Jan 5 (Reuters) – Venezuela’s crude oil output could rise over time following the U.S. military strike and the capture of President Nicolas Maduro, potentially adding to global supply and weighing on oil prices in the longer term, analysts said.
U.S. forces seized Maduro in Caracas over the weekend, and President Donald Trump said Washington would take control of the oil-producing nation while maintaining a full embargo on Venezuelan crude.
Venezuela, a member of OPEC, holds about 17% of global oil reserves, or roughly 303 billion barrels, according to the London-based Energy Institute, ahead of group leader Saudi Arabia.
The country produced as much as 3.5 million barrels per day (bpd) in the 1970s, accounting for more than 7% of global output at the time. Production slid below 2 million bpd in the 2010s and averaged about 1.1 million bpd last year, or around 1% of global supply.
Analysts at JPMorgan, led by Natasha Kaneva, said a political transition could allow Venezuela to lift output to 1.3–1.4 million bpd within two years and potentially reach 2.5 million bpd over the next decade, from around 800,000 bpd currently.
“These dynamics are currently not reflected in the back end of the oil futures curve,” the analysts said in a note.
Analysts at Goldman Sachs, led by Daan Struyven, cautioned that any recovery would likely be gradual and require substantial investment. They estimated a downside of about $4 a barrel to 2030 oil prices in a scenario where Venezuelan production rises to 2 million bpd.
In the near term, Venezuela’s production outlook this year will depend largely on how U.S. sanctions policy evolves, Goldman said. “We see ambiguous but modest risks to oil prices in the short run from Venezuela depending on how U.S. sanctions policy evolves,” the analysts added.
Goldman’s 2026 oil price forecasts were unchanged, with Brent crude averaging $56 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate at $52, while Venezuela’s oil output in 2026 is expected to remain flat at about 900,000 bpd.